* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/31/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 54 58 63 66 67 64 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 54 58 63 66 67 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 43 47 50 53 57 59 59 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 6 8 11 10 7 7 5 5 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 3 9 SHEAR DIR 65 66 74 68 61 64 54 59 17 5 282 268 262 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.9 27.3 28.0 28.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 148 147 144 138 136 134 138 145 145 137 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 67 67 62 59 57 58 58 61 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -23 -22 -20 -19 -12 -3 3 9 17 32 37 38 200 MB DIV 21 9 16 29 45 24 52 53 20 24 1 -26 -30 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -4 -4 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1337 1354 1378 1414 1465 1555 1685 1871 2083 2310 2441 2246 2060 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.2 12.6 12.0 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.3 117.4 118.4 119.5 121.6 123.7 126.0 128.3 130.8 133.1 135.3 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 12 12 12 11 18 30 18 11 10 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 28. 33. 36. 37. 34. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 115.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 22.0% 14.8% 13.0% 7.9% 15.2% 17.0% 11.0% Logistic: 1.8% 8.4% 3.5% 1.7% 0.3% 2.6% 2.3% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 11.3% 6.2% 4.9% 2.7% 5.9% 6.5% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX