* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 41 48 54 60 64 65 64 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 41 48 54 60 64 65 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 40 43 46 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 7 6 11 11 10 5 8 4 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 0 1 1 0 -3 -3 -3 1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 56 61 61 68 61 51 58 49 19 360 312 274 257 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 143 143 140 134 138 139 142 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 68 68 64 61 57 56 56 58 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -26 -25 -25 -19 -12 -6 4 14 13 31 38 43 200 MB DIV 23 23 8 18 35 38 43 52 35 22 15 -21 -29 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -4 -4 -2 2 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1273 1341 1348 1358 1384 1470 1556 1707 1914 2143 2377 2305 2098 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.6 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.3 14.2 13.9 13.4 12.7 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.7 115.8 116.9 117.8 119.9 122.0 124.2 126.7 129.3 131.9 134.4 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 13 13 13 13 10 19 28 8 11 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 23. 29. 35. 39. 40. 39. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 113.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 16.4% 6.2% 3.3% 0.7% 6.7% 5.6% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 12.6% 8.3% 1.1% 0.2% 7.4% 7.6% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX