* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 60 68 74 78 82 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 60 68 74 78 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 46 52 59 66 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 9 8 4 5 4 6 7 7 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 4 4 5 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 38 56 57 60 77 68 80 69 79 92 95 75 298 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.1 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 147 145 144 142 135 140 141 135 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 67 68 66 62 60 56 56 56 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -23 -28 -22 -18 -23 -12 -5 8 14 23 27 28 200 MB DIV 10 20 16 10 23 28 16 14 7 13 24 6 -2 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -9 -5 -4 -1 -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1199 1257 1308 1339 1368 1493 1624 1777 1983 2209 2411 2465 2373 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.4 13.8 13.9 13.7 13.2 12.6 11.8 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.6 114.9 116.2 117.4 120.0 122.5 124.7 127.1 129.4 131.5 133.2 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 15 13 13 13 12 24 29 15 16 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 35. 43. 49. 53. 57. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 112.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 22.6% 10.1% 5.2% 0.9% 10.0% 7.9% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 15.5% 9.5% 1.7% 0.3% 8.9% 8.9% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX