* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 63 65 68 69 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 63 65 68 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 42 45 47 48 51 55 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 8 10 7 9 8 7 6 5 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 4 2 3 0 -3 -3 -5 -5 -6 1 SHEAR DIR 26 46 74 78 75 85 97 109 100 106 94 114 194 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 147 147 141 145 141 140 141 141 147 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 65 68 67 64 64 59 57 56 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -17 -24 -27 -20 -15 -22 -1 0 24 31 48 43 200 MB DIV -2 15 17 2 1 19 17 30 2 3 10 -2 -16 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1159 1221 1289 1341 1374 1470 1615 1763 1950 2186 2409 2328 2112 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.3 12.9 12.4 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.6 113.9 115.2 116.5 119.1 121.7 124.2 126.6 129.2 131.8 134.3 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 22 15 12 14 11 23 32 15 13 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 32. 38. 40. 43. 44. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 111.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 11.7% 38.8% 20.9% 12.5% 4.4% 17.8% 12.0% 23.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 16.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 5.3% 5.8% 0.1% Consensus: 4.1% 25.2% 13.7% 4.2% 1.5% 13.1% 11.9% 7.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX