* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 38 47 55 64 68 75 79 81 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 38 47 55 64 68 75 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 35 39 42 46 53 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 2 5 6 5 4 2 4 2 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 4 6 3 4 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 60 34 49 89 69 69 97 127 117 131 69 95 107 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.7 26.7 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 147 146 147 141 142 143 140 142 131 147 146 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 63 66 68 68 65 64 60 62 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -17 -20 -25 -23 -29 -24 -12 -2 11 21 27 200 MB DIV 6 -6 18 18 11 19 16 17 17 8 4 12 7 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 1127 1194 1266 1352 1403 1507 1656 1785 1956 2166 2365 2419 2230 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.4 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.7 113.1 114.5 115.9 118.6 121.2 123.7 126.2 128.7 131.1 133.4 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 22 18 14 18 11 20 28 20 16 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 27. 35. 44. 48. 55. 59. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 110.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 49.6% 30.5% 19.0% 4.9% 26.9% 17.7% 33.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 19.2% 10.3% 6.4% 1.7% 9.4% 6.3% 11.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX