* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 33 44 53 61 66 71 75 77 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 33 44 53 61 66 71 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 20 22 25 28 31 34 37 42 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 4 2 6 5 4 3 5 3 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 4 5 4 2 0 -3 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 60 59 35 49 107 67 86 117 138 130 131 95 111 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.1 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 147 149 151 148 146 142 141 143 136 142 144 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 65 63 67 68 65 65 61 62 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -8 -16 -19 -24 -22 -28 -10 -7 13 15 32 200 MB DIV 28 6 -6 19 18 0 26 12 25 1 15 6 22 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1047 1112 1169 1250 1338 1437 1567 1716 1878 2076 2299 2500 2300 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.1 12.8 12.4 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 110.2 111.6 113.1 114.5 117.3 120.0 122.7 125.2 127.7 130.2 132.6 134.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 24 17 16 13 15 16 19 26 20 14 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 24. 33. 41. 46. 51. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 108.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 41.3% 22.6% 12.8% 4.8% 22.1% 11.4% 21.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 15.4% 7.6% 4.3% 1.7% 7.7% 4.1% 7.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX