* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 22 26 32 38 45 51 54 56 59 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 22 26 32 38 45 51 54 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 24 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 7 5 5 5 7 5 5 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 1 4 4 4 2 5 1 -2 -2 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 72 87 92 123 130 124 128 141 146 151 142 118 104 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.7 26.3 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 150 149 149 149 141 143 142 142 127 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 64 65 65 65 64 65 62 64 62 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -24 -24 -13 -19 -29 -31 -42 -44 -16 0 5 13 200 MB DIV 26 19 5 0 9 10 0 19 19 30 42 20 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -7 -5 -6 -5 -4 0 0 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 903 944 1007 1074 1164 1334 1492 1696 1909 2140 2359 2419 2202 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.4 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 108.0 109.5 111.1 112.7 116.1 119.3 122.4 125.5 128.3 130.9 133.4 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 26 31 20 13 14 15 20 21 21 12 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 25. 31. 34. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 106.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.7% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5% 5.4% 0.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX