* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 55 59 62 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 55 59 62 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 37 39 42 45 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 7 8 7 7 10 11 10 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 66 76 94 114 112 126 125 87 98 123 145 140 143 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.6 27.6 28.2 27.6 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 149 151 147 149 148 141 141 147 141 148 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 65 65 68 67 69 67 68 64 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -16 -15 -10 -10 -11 -18 -21 -36 -26 -17 -4 -1 200 MB DIV 20 18 20 4 -10 31 1 23 12 18 24 38 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -8 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 902 940 1006 1097 1186 1388 1531 1724 1917 2100 2291 2477 2546 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.4 108.9 110.6 112.1 115.1 118.1 120.9 123.6 126.1 128.5 130.7 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 25 25 22 17 19 12 11 15 23 28 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.8% 3.1% 15.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.3% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 5.2% 6.3% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX