* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 61 66 70 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 45 53 61 66 70 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 42 46 51 55 59 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 6 4 4 4 6 10 11 10 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -1 0 0 2 3 3 3 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 61 71 94 116 144 111 137 71 73 90 105 109 93 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 150 147 150 147 141 142 145 143 140 147 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 62 65 69 70 72 72 70 72 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -2 -6 -5 -5 -12 -10 -27 -21 -20 -18 -11 200 MB DIV 22 12 12 12 0 17 18 13 1 3 3 18 22 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -6 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 939 988 1075 1177 1282 1499 1661 1820 1989 2137 2283 2409 2545 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 107.2 108.8 110.5 112.1 114.9 117.5 120.1 122.6 124.9 127.0 128.9 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 13 12 13 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 23 21 19 16 16 14 11 16 18 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 28. 36. 41. 45. 47. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 105.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.7% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 14.2% 6.9% 3.0% 2.3% 5.3% 13.7% 51.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 12.6% 6.3% 1.0% 0.8% 6.7% 10.2% 17.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX