* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 44 49 57 64 70 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 44 49 57 64 70 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 31 35 39 42 44 47 52 55 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 14 6 2 1 5 3 5 6 9 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 0 6 4 3 3 1 2 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 54 61 66 43 53 144 138 87 82 104 128 179 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 27.4 27.7 28.3 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 144 146 149 147 149 152 140 143 149 142 142 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 62 62 64 65 64 67 63 66 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -15 -18 -25 -24 -18 -23 -23 -30 -39 -29 -23 0 200 MB DIV 45 31 24 19 24 -6 10 -13 14 28 32 21 39 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 -5 -7 -6 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 897 935 969 989 1051 1217 1406 1551 1740 1933 2143 2369 2485 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.8 105.2 106.6 108.2 111.5 114.6 117.8 121.0 124.1 127.2 130.1 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 19 22 24 19 16 19 13 15 19 31 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 10. 12. 13. 15. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 24. 32. 39. 45. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 102.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 2.2% 4.0% 31.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 8.1% 4.2% 0.2% 0.1% 5.6% 7.1% 10.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX