* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 33 39 47 52 58 63 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 33 39 47 52 58 63 68 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 44 47 49 53 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 14 9 7 6 7 6 7 9 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -2 1 2 1 4 2 3 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 60 47 47 55 59 61 91 110 95 69 68 103 115 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 145 145 144 150 148 148 144 144 146 144 148 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.1 -54.7 -54.4 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 63 65 68 68 70 72 68 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -1 -12 -12 -17 -16 -14 -24 -24 -29 -32 -32 -29 200 MB DIV 50 46 39 28 20 -2 -8 -3 -2 11 26 8 9 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -3 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 -3 1 -1 LAND (KM) 858 896 953 998 1052 1225 1411 1612 1773 1959 2141 2294 2448 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.7 104.2 105.8 107.3 110.5 113.6 116.5 119.5 122.3 125.1 127.5 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 15 15 16 14 15 14 14 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 20 22 19 15 15 15 11 20 19 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 19. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 14. 22. 27. 33. 38. 43. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 101.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 9.4% 3.8% 1.7% 1.2% 3.5% 12.0% 62.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 0.4% 9.2% 6.4% 0.6% 0.4% 6.0% 9.7% 21.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX