* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 30 37 45 52 60 64 67 70 72 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 30 37 45 52 60 64 67 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 14 13 9 7 5 1 8 8 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 0 3 0 3 5 0 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 67 63 53 54 56 95 103 99 62 38 57 91 150 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.8 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 143 144 147 143 142 143 144 143 146 151 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 63 61 60 64 66 67 68 66 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 -1 -12 -14 -15 -11 -20 -23 -26 -25 -26 -19 200 MB DIV 46 43 35 34 20 -5 -8 9 0 7 0 5 0 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -7 -6 -4 -2 -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 831 872 928 989 1048 1227 1408 1578 1772 1894 2034 2186 2330 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 101.7 103.2 104.8 106.3 109.3 111.9 114.4 116.9 119.3 121.6 123.8 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 18 20 25 14 17 32 19 20 28 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 17. 25. 32. 40. 44. 47. 50. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.9 100.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 22.4% 9.5% 4.7% 3.6% 4.7% 9.0% 73.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.9% 0.2% Consensus: 1.3% 8.2% 3.2% 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 4.0% 24.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX