* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 07/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 41 47 52 58 63 64 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 41 47 52 58 63 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 31 32 32 33 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 11 12 7 6 4 2 7 10 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 1 2 2 1 6 2 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 74 71 64 57 47 83 106 154 214 44 66 79 136 SST (C) 29.3 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 152 150 143 142 145 145 142 143 144 147 148 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -55.1 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 64 62 64 67 69 68 69 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 11 0 -10 -16 -14 -19 -28 -32 -25 -29 -23 200 MB DIV 38 34 32 29 37 0 -10 -8 -7 -2 18 13 12 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -5 -6 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 807 827 876 943 1014 1161 1366 1549 1722 1889 2005 2145 2270 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.3 101.8 103.3 104.9 107.9 110.7 113.3 115.7 118.1 120.4 122.6 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 15 16 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 18 18 18 23 23 14 34 33 20 29 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 21. 27. 32. 38. 43. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.8 99.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 21.7% 9.5% 4.8% 3.1% 4.3% 1.7% 49.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 7.7% 3.2% 1.6% 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 16.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX