* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 06/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 43 52 57 63 63 65 67 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 43 52 57 63 63 65 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 50 55 59 64 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 11 14 16 14 17 14 14 13 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 -1 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 340 329 349 2 15 40 49 53 44 30 32 49 68 SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 167 167 166 167 167 168 168 165 163 162 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 83 79 77 75 72 69 66 66 63 62 61 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 8 -1 -15 14 18 54 25 52 46 68 62 200 MB DIV 70 65 58 49 32 8 26 38 34 49 43 41 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 158 128 98 82 66 70 55 45 46 55 6 4 4 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 3 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 24 25 26 26 26 24 24 21 11 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 33. 35. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 100.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##