* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 06/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 44 53 60 63 64 65 67 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 44 53 60 63 64 65 44 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 41 46 51 56 60 42 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 10 13 13 14 16 13 12 10 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 4 2 1 5 2 4 -1 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 354 347 350 358 360 28 31 49 48 36 31 35 45 SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 168 168 167 166 167 166 166 168 169 167 165 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 7 10 9 11 8 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 85 81 78 76 74 71 70 69 71 71 71 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -17 -12 -3 -14 -3 8 33 29 42 45 67 73 200 MB DIV 69 62 69 61 54 11 7 32 49 68 38 49 13 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 223 166 138 127 111 95 91 92 92 62 3 -30 -111 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.4 100.7 100.9 101.0 101.1 101.0 100.8 100.8 100.8 101.2 101.8 102.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 2 2 0 1 0 1 3 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 22 24 25 26 26 25 25 25 11 46 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 31. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 23. 30. 33. 34. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 100.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##