* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 06/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 53 60 65 66 67 69 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 53 60 65 55 39 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 44 49 45 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 14 11 10 11 12 14 17 12 8 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 3 4 8 5 5 6 2 3 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 351 7 5 4 358 6 25 36 53 42 22 3 4 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.6 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 168 168 169 169 168 168 168 168 168 168 164 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 11 9 11 8 10 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 82 80 76 73 72 72 74 74 77 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -20 -21 -28 -21 -24 -19 -8 11 29 57 70 86 200 MB DIV 125 120 98 87 113 57 33 16 36 40 47 53 74 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 448 431 424 398 362 275 196 132 54 -15 -74 -129 -179 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.5 14.4 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.4 100.0 100.3 100.4 100.5 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.2 99.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 25 23 18 18 22 22 52 51 46 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 31. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 23. 30. 35. 36. 37. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 99.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.75 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 9.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##