* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 06/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 42 46 52 56 64 64 65 63 65 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 42 46 52 56 56 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 37 38 40 40 43 46 33 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 19 19 19 19 13 17 14 10 9 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 5 8 6 6 6 3 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 352 353 5 14 13 15 7 8 4 11 358 351 354 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 30.8 30.2 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 169 170 169 169 169 169 165 161 159 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 84 83 82 79 77 75 76 76 77 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 7 11 9 8 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -38 -29 -21 -23 -7 -13 13 29 83 69 97 75 200 MB DIV 92 113 113 97 92 77 55 29 47 65 55 57 32 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 514 503 497 483 450 337 202 103 -2 -109 -201 -259 -301 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.3 13.4 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.6 18.6 19.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.1 99.3 99.5 99.7 99.7 99.4 99.2 99.1 99.2 99.4 99.7 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 4 5 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 31 31 23 17 19 13 50 41 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 31. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 3. 2. -0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 22. 26. 34. 34. 35. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 98.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.71 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##