* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 06/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 28 35 41 47 50 55 57 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 28 35 41 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 24 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 18 16 17 16 20 15 14 15 10 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 4 4 11 9 6 7 0 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 356 352 347 354 353 5 12 356 20 8 357 312 340 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.0 31.0 30.7 30.2 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 168 169 169 170 169 169 169 165 161 160 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.3 -53.3 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.4 -52.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 5 7 6 9 8 10 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 83 83 83 82 79 77 76 79 79 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -31 -27 -17 -18 -13 -4 4 35 57 84 93 79 200 MB DIV 89 93 98 90 80 64 65 38 47 45 51 79 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 0 2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 454 439 423 427 400 329 202 68 -29 -132 -211 -133 -79 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.5 13.3 14.6 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.1 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.1 98.4 98.6 98.9 99.3 99.4 99.1 98.7 98.2 97.8 97.5 97.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 6 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 30 30 25 19 23 54 49 47 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 4. 13. 24. 32. 37. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 97.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.98 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/13/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING