* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932018 06/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 27 34 40 45 49 53 57 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 27 34 40 45 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 19 22 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 23 17 15 15 19 21 14 16 13 9 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 5 4 6 10 7 6 4 -1 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 350 355 351 343 350 355 13 357 10 16 359 345 322 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.9 30.9 31.0 30.9 30.5 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 168 168 169 170 169 169 169 168 162 160 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 82 84 84 83 83 83 83 80 78 75 78 80 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -29 -31 -20 -13 -20 -1 -8 24 39 83 78 89 200 MB DIV 77 85 93 96 87 74 63 48 35 51 54 46 71 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -4 0 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 446 423 397 390 396 347 253 122 13 -84 -172 -198 -134 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.5 13.1 14.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.3 97.8 98.2 98.4 98.7 99.2 99.4 99.4 99.0 98.6 98.2 97.9 97.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 2 3 4 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 28 30 27 20 22 21 55 44 0 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):318/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 4. 13. 24. 32. 37. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 97.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 06/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.98 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 06/13/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING