* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 10/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 23 17 7 10 12 9 5 6 12 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -7 -2 -5 -4 -1 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 115 114 113 122 161 298 327 344 339 186 193 165 178 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.7 29.7 29.7 29.2 28.3 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 151 149 147 153 164 165 160 150 146 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.0 -54.5 -53.8 -54.7 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 5 7 6 8 7 9 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 63 63 64 68 69 71 64 64 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -33 -24 -24 -31 -22 -13 -30 -22 -23 -12 -17 -25 200 MB DIV -23 -24 -41 -37 -45 16 57 64 55 65 57 79 54 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -5 -4 -8 -5 0 8 7 4 LAND (KM) 278 292 314 347 388 502 489 519 577 676 908 984 1078 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.3 13.1 14.1 14.7 15.4 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 90.6 90.9 91.4 92.2 93.2 95.7 98.4 101.3 104.6 108.2 112.0 115.0 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 15 18 18 17 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 10 7 1 5 18 29 35 14 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -1. 5. 13. 19. 21. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 90.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 10/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 84.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 10/30/17 12 UTC ## ##