* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 10/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 24 24 27 32 37 42 46 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 24 24 27 32 37 42 46 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 26 25 24 23 23 23 23 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 26 28 22 21 18 3 2 10 10 12 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -4 -3 -4 -6 -1 0 -1 2 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 102 108 116 118 115 122 152 346 7 30 29 30 30 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 153 154 154 153 153 154 156 156 154 152 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 65 63 67 66 69 68 70 68 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -33 -28 -26 -21 -22 -27 -22 -32 -51 -48 -39 -37 200 MB DIV -3 -12 3 2 -7 -33 -44 14 46 49 50 31 62 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -6 -8 -7 -6 0 LAND (KM) 299 276 281 296 330 407 477 590 598 652 745 808 905 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.3 12.0 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 90.4 90.1 90.0 90.1 90.4 91.7 93.6 95.8 98.4 101.1 104.1 107.1 110.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 4 8 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 5 10 8 2 6 13 14 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 2. 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 90.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 10/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 10/29/17 18 UTC ## ##