* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 08/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 57 65 75 79 77 74 69 62 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 57 65 75 79 77 74 69 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 56 64 65 61 54 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 0 2 2 2 5 0 5 7 11 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -3 -3 -5 0 4 1 0 -1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 39 27 172 308 21 97 352 19 251 193 212 198 200 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.7 27.4 26.3 25.0 24.2 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 146 142 137 140 138 128 113 104 100 98 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 62 61 62 59 58 54 48 42 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 16 18 20 22 20 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -10 -9 -1 -2 20 5 -1 1 7 25 41 28 200 MB DIV 43 35 42 55 59 51 60 68 30 27 -8 -13 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -5 -4 -3 -1 1 4 5 9 3 7 LAND (KM) 1077 1125 1204 1303 1428 1723 1914 1942 1891 1919 1954 1977 1949 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.1 15.7 16.5 18.5 20.4 21.5 22.1 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.2 118.9 120.7 122.6 126.0 128.2 129.4 130.5 132.1 133.6 134.7 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 17 18 18 14 7 9 12 11 8 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 23 13 8 4 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 13. 15. 13. 11. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 27. 35. 45. 49. 47. 44. 39. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 115.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 08/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.06 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 148.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 18.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 13.5% 7.9% 4.9% 2.0% 25.3% 34.0% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.3% 11.3% 8.1% 1.6% 0.7% 14.8% 11.3% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 08/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##