* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 08/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 58 67 77 78 78 74 67 61 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 58 67 77 78 78 74 67 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 50 59 67 70 67 59 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 1 1 3 3 2 3 5 13 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 3 -1 0 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 37 32 20 23 77 22 41 20 279 278 232 224 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.1 25.8 24.4 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 145 137 140 139 135 123 108 103 103 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 63 61 63 61 56 58 51 41 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 16 17 20 19 19 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -2 -12 -11 0 19 27 6 0 8 0 14 29 200 MB DIV 52 42 36 44 50 39 45 64 29 13 13 -2 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 1 4 11 5 3 LAND (KM) 1046 1068 1131 1207 1316 1598 1845 1988 2008 1963 1976 2024 1871 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.0 15.9 16.8 19.0 21.1 22.0 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.8 117.4 119.1 121.0 124.7 127.6 129.4 130.5 131.7 133.4 135.5 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 17 18 18 16 11 7 9 14 12 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 26 21 12 6 5 8 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 8. 13. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 37. 47. 48. 48. 44. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 114.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 08/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 149.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 21.0% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 32.3% 20.6% 14.1% 8.6% 30.7% 36.7% 28.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 4.5% 20.8% 13.1% 4.8% 2.9% 17.1% 12.4% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 08/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##