* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 08/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 51 61 68 74 76 74 69 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 51 61 68 74 76 74 69 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 50 55 56 54 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 6 4 3 8 4 1 3 1 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -5 -4 -2 -4 -1 1 -1 3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 51 41 30 27 71 27 31 32 111 2 268 220 227 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.3 25.0 24.1 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 150 140 137 138 134 127 114 103 99 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 64 64 64 63 58 58 56 46 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 19 19 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 3 -6 -7 2 17 1 -8 0 1 16 27 200 MB DIV 48 57 49 43 44 22 23 42 48 10 -4 -14 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -5 -6 -4 2 2 2 9 4 LAND (KM) 1072 1081 1114 1177 1277 1474 1704 1844 1881 1858 1868 1871 1899 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.0 16.2 17.0 18.6 20.5 22.0 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.6 116.1 117.7 119.5 122.8 125.7 127.8 129.1 130.2 131.6 133.0 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 16 17 17 15 12 9 8 10 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 21 27 19 9 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 26. 36. 43. 49. 51. 49. 44. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 113.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 08/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.3% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 33.1% 20.1% 16.2% 12.3% 29.5% 44.0% 38.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 19.0% 12.3% 5.4% 4.1% 16.0% 20.1% 12.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 08/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##