* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 08/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 61 67 74 75 75 71 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 61 67 74 75 75 71 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 57 59 58 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 7 4 11 10 5 2 3 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -3 -4 -2 -5 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 41 73 40 22 28 29 11 25 47 190 238 209 229 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.0 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.3 25.2 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 152 145 138 138 136 127 116 108 106 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 68 65 66 65 61 60 55 47 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 17 17 18 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 13 8 12 6 5 14 10 9 -5 6 5 8 12 200 MB DIV 24 47 56 52 48 61 38 43 37 25 19 -8 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 -7 -5 0 0 0 5 7 LAND (KM) 1050 1087 1120 1200 1301 1478 1637 1769 1826 1906 2012 2098 1936 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.9 17.1 18.4 19.7 20.6 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.8 115.2 116.9 118.5 121.5 124.1 126.4 128.5 130.6 132.7 134.6 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 16 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 18 18 23 24 18 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 10. 11. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 36. 42. 49. 50. 50. 46. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 112.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 08/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 97.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 23.0% 11.4% 8.1% 4.3% 36.0% 56.5% 48.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 1.7% 0.4% Consensus: 1.0% 15.8% 9.1% 2.8% 1.5% 18.3% 24.7% 16.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 08/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##