* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 08/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 36 46 56 63 70 73 73 71 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 36 46 56 63 70 73 73 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 46 51 54 55 53 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 4 5 1 2 7 6 1 4 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -5 -5 -2 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 16 32 50 18 360 74 322 15 27 44 299 243 242 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.0 25.8 24.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 153 152 148 139 138 138 134 122 109 104 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 71 70 68 67 65 68 67 65 63 56 49 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 13 13 15 15 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 12 16 9 8 17 27 11 0 1 2 -13 200 MB DIV 37 22 49 49 47 35 40 52 41 18 18 16 -3 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -4 -5 -1 -3 -7 -2 4 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 994 1016 1062 1062 1096 1282 1514 1760 1881 1899 1889 1960 2019 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.8 16.1 16.0 16.2 17.3 19.2 21.0 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.7 112.9 114.4 116.1 120.0 123.5 126.4 128.3 129.6 131.0 133.0 135.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 17 19 18 16 12 8 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 41 27 17 21 16 7 5 5 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 21. 31. 38. 45. 48. 48. 46. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 110.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 08/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 21.3% 10.5% 6.7% 3.6% 23.0% 36.8% 35.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% Consensus: 0.7% 12.6% 7.8% 2.3% 1.2% 13.3% 12.5% 11.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 08/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##