* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 08/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 51 57 64 63 62 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 51 57 64 63 62 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 31 34 38 40 40 38 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 12 9 8 6 2 4 10 12 12 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 9 16 33 42 40 31 157 254 214 211 215 312 16 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.0 27.2 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 156 157 154 147 139 131 129 129 128 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 9 8 6 4 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 70 69 66 64 61 63 63 67 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 13 16 15 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 13 2 -5 0 10 -1 -4 -20 30 41 51 11 -17 200 MB DIV 52 42 32 47 42 26 23 18 29 39 24 26 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 985 992 959 939 965 938 1049 1310 1614 2003 2233 2162 2170 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 12.2 13.3 14.4 16.3 17.8 18.8 19.0 18.1 17.0 16.4 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.1 110.0 111.1 112.4 115.6 119.1 123.3 127.6 131.5 133.8 134.6 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 14 16 17 19 19 21 20 16 8 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 30 32 24 18 7 0 4 5 2 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 26. 32. 39. 38. 37. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 108.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 08/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 20.3% 9.5% 6.7% 4.7% 15.9% 26.2% 18.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 13.2% 7.5% 2.3% 1.6% 10.4% 14.0% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 08/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##