* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 08/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 47 58 69 78 82 84 82 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 47 58 69 78 82 84 82 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 40 48 56 63 68 67 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 8 7 4 1 1 5 10 10 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 -4 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 13 21 41 56 19 88 102 52 46 41 8 270 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.7 27.4 26.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 155 156 156 150 147 141 138 139 139 126 109 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 73 72 70 65 66 68 67 67 59 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 10 10 11 12 14 16 17 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 18 9 2 -4 -3 8 3 19 40 21 -16 -9 -2 200 MB DIV 59 62 45 45 55 30 42 44 60 60 27 13 -9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -1 -2 -8 -8 -5 2 3 LAND (KM) 974 988 979 960 970 998 1164 1436 1741 1920 1857 1729 1792 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.8 12.7 13.6 15.2 16.2 16.3 15.7 15.1 16.4 19.4 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.7 111.8 114.9 118.7 122.7 125.9 127.6 128.2 129.3 131.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 12 14 16 18 19 18 12 5 12 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 26 33 35 19 24 7 5 8 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 33. 44. 53. 57. 59. 57. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 108.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 08/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.5% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 38.5% 20.6% 14.6% 10.2% 44.2% 59.6% 66.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 4.1% 0.7% Consensus: 1.8% 21.7% 12.5% 5.0% 3.5% 21.3% 27.2% 22.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 08/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##