* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 06/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 48 56 56 51 49 44 38 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 48 56 56 51 49 44 38 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 36 35 32 29 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 1 6 4 11 6 1 4 5 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -4 0 8 6 4 7 10 SHEAR DIR 80 6 342 82 117 83 78 128 132 183 193 212 152 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.2 26.7 25.3 24.5 23.9 23.3 23.0 22.6 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 153 147 132 116 108 101 95 91 87 86 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -51.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 77 76 72 68 67 60 61 56 52 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 13 15 13 11 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 16 14 21 20 35 27 19 9 0 11 3 200 MB DIV 107 89 66 45 49 25 34 -39 -8 3 -12 -23 -14 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -10 -1 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 257 236 214 207 187 251 378 478 470 576 634 708 806 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.5 20.1 20.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.5 100.4 101.5 102.6 103.8 106.2 108.4 110.3 112.2 114.2 115.8 117.4 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 12 12 10 9 10 9 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 20 16 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 13. 19. 22. 24. 25. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 5. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 23. 31. 31. 26. 24. 19. 13. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 99.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 06/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 13.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 06/25/17 00 UTC ##