* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 06/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 64 64 62 57 52 46 40 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 64 64 62 57 52 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 47 52 51 46 41 35 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 2 3 3 7 8 2 4 2 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 3 5 7 5 4 SHEAR DIR 66 64 24 3 102 92 121 82 50 82 200 217 294 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 27.9 26.0 24.8 24.2 23.9 23.3 23.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 156 155 144 124 111 104 101 94 91 85 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 78 76 75 69 67 65 61 58 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 13 12 11 11 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 25 19 18 30 24 37 34 20 12 19 25 200 MB DIV 102 97 82 56 38 33 19 43 -26 -25 -9 -23 -19 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 -2 0 -5 -7 -6 -4 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 285 259 223 186 173 176 265 423 469 506 584 609 655 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.2 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.5 20.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.3 100.1 101.1 102.2 104.6 107.1 109.2 111.1 112.7 114.3 115.7 117.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 13 13 12 9 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 22 20 18 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 34. 34. 32. 27. 22. 16. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 98.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 06/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 7.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 06/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##