* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 06/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 57 63 63 57 55 50 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 57 63 63 57 55 50 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 40 36 32 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 4 1 5 4 9 4 6 2 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 5 6 4 SHEAR DIR 34 64 65 26 356 113 121 80 30 26 106 168 38 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.2 26.9 25.5 24.3 23.5 23.3 23.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 154 147 133 118 106 97 95 92 89 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 76 78 79 77 76 74 70 68 62 62 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 11 9 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 29 27 16 23 25 27 27 19 13 6 22 200 MB DIV 116 101 92 79 45 34 13 29 15 -19 -33 -30 -27 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 0 1 -4 -4 -7 -3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 308 283 252 231 214 192 235 319 440 408 493 581 603 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.5 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 98.9 99.6 100.5 101.5 103.7 105.9 107.8 109.6 111.5 113.3 114.8 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 9 9 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 21 22 20 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 32. 38. 38. 32. 30. 25. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 98.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 06/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 16.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 06/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##