* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 06/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 49 58 66 66 62 58 54 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 49 58 66 66 62 58 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 30 33 38 42 43 40 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 5 3 3 5 5 6 4 2 1 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 5 6 7 SHEAR DIR 9 33 63 63 14 119 105 125 72 7 84 229 129 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.6 27.5 26.2 25.0 23.9 23.3 23.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 155 151 139 125 113 101 95 93 90 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 77 79 77 76 71 69 66 63 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 13 12 11 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 17 23 30 29 16 25 18 34 28 17 10 18 200 MB DIV 129 114 96 88 79 27 25 17 30 -10 -17 -25 -33 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 -1 2 -3 -3 -7 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 315 295 245 231 200 211 230 283 384 413 422 517 564 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.1 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.0 98.7 99.6 100.5 102.7 105.0 107.0 108.7 110.4 112.2 114.0 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 12 11 9 9 9 9 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 21 21 16 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 24. 33. 41. 41. 37. 33. 29. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 97.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 06/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.71 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 17.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 06/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##