* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 06/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 57 59 57 55 50 44 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 57 59 57 55 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 39 41 40 37 34 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 3 2 3 2 2 1 3 4 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 0 -3 -2 0 -2 0 2 5 3 SHEAR DIR 14 24 27 36 360 314 247 229 107 44 54 181 202 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.0 27.2 25.0 24.5 24.4 24.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 154 158 156 137 114 108 106 102 95 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 8 4 4 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 76 77 75 74 70 68 62 63 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 20 24 27 21 32 11 21 24 17 15 -2 200 MB DIV 94 125 109 77 75 21 17 15 8 3 -6 -9 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 345 321 277 211 160 106 84 163 346 483 543 631 704 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.1 14.8 16.2 17.4 18.1 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.7 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.0 97.6 98.2 98.9 100.9 103.3 105.8 108.4 110.7 112.5 114.1 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 13 12 13 11 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 19 24 23 16 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 27. 32. 34. 32. 30. 25. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 96.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 06/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 14.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 06/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##