* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 06/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 39 47 55 59 64 61 60 56 51 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 39 47 55 59 64 61 60 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 40 44 46 47 45 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 7 5 3 2 5 3 4 7 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 -1 -2 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 23 35 42 79 24 36 75 70 18 331 19 284 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.0 25.7 23.9 22.3 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 153 154 152 145 134 120 101 84 71 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 76 76 78 77 77 73 72 70 66 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 5 6 4 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 37 38 26 27 25 11 11 7 26 3 27 0 200 MB DIV 58 93 102 103 76 61 12 25 8 15 -19 -14 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 1 -2 1 -5 -6 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 257 257 248 237 230 219 213 175 178 213 314 213 224 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 18.0 19.2 20.3 21.0 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.1 97.8 98.4 99.1 100.7 102.4 104.1 105.9 107.3 108.8 110.3 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 22 23 21 12 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. 1. -2. -0. -3. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 14. 22. 30. 34. 39. 36. 35. 31. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 96.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 06/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 21.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 06/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##