* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932017 06/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 38 46 53 59 61 61 57 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 38 46 53 59 61 61 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 28 32 35 36 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 16 14 11 8 6 8 3 5 7 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 50 51 54 54 59 54 15 57 16 332 301 340 303 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.0 25.8 22.9 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 152 152 153 154 156 157 145 122 92 75 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 8 6 7 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 76 78 78 79 77 79 75 72 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 15 8 7 24 9 17 21 16 11 11 15 200 MB DIV 51 69 94 98 101 82 40 34 7 12 1 -2 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 3 -1 -2 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 410 421 439 444 438 375 248 128 31 25 166 204 257 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.9 14.5 16.3 17.9 19.3 20.4 21.1 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.3 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.4 100.2 101.6 103.2 105.2 107.3 109.6 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 6 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 22 23 24 24 24 22 15 10 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 30. 34. 36. 36. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 26. 33. 39. 41. 41. 37. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 97.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932017 INVEST 06/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 18.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932017 INVEST 06/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##