* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 46 45 42 34 26 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 46 45 42 34 26 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 31 28 25 21 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 9 7 6 9 12 14 21 26 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 72 78 66 64 87 151 177 194 198 220 227 252 250 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.5 26.4 25.0 23.7 22.4 21.2 20.6 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 153 151 140 128 113 99 85 72 64 61 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 75 74 70 66 57 52 45 45 39 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 13 14 12 10 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 17 10 19 17 3 5 -19 -33 -18 14 7 200 MB DIV 67 54 32 32 51 58 23 12 8 3 13 4 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 3 0 5 12 8 13 -2 -11 -24 LAND (KM) 585 586 618 676 638 583 552 559 473 349 236 164 156 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 9 9 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 17 18 20 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 21. 21. 17. 9. 1. -7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 107.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.3% 5.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 10.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 13.8% 8.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##