* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 47 50 47 41 32 25 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 47 50 47 41 32 25 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 33 31 28 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 13 10 6 5 11 14 13 14 23 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 70 77 86 88 85 83 174 189 191 195 217 218 233 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.1 25.8 24.6 23.4 21.8 20.7 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 156 154 154 149 137 121 108 96 79 67 63 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 6 4 2 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 75 75 74 65 59 53 45 32 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 9 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 13 20 27 28 22 22 26 18 16 2 -16 2 20 200 MB DIV 95 91 73 49 34 54 48 27 17 4 -4 16 21 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -1 5 1 5 13 2 10 -7 -14 LAND (KM) 652 610 572 540 541 568 606 566 528 424 416 329 152 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 13 13 13 13 16 14 9 8 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 28 32 25 21 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 2. -2. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 23. 25. 22. 16. 8. 0. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 106.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.54 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 8.0% 4.0% 0.8% 0.4% 6.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 13.1% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 0.4% 15.0% 8.1% 0.7% 0.2% 2.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##