* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 56 59 60 54 48 41 34 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 56 59 60 54 48 41 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 42 41 38 33 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 17 12 7 2 6 11 13 17 21 24 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 -4 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 73 85 93 101 100 111 169 201 181 221 243 241 231 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.5 27.6 26.3 24.7 23.4 21.7 20.6 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 159 159 151 141 127 110 97 78 65 60 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 3 700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 77 76 76 70 65 58 52 42 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 14 14 13 11 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 30 35 33 15 28 6 9 15 3 3 9 200 MB DIV 77 87 91 76 56 35 43 29 25 4 1 13 10 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 1 1 0 3 4 4 12 14 2 -12 LAND (KM) 518 480 448 431 428 501 409 392 396 363 324 287 208 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 14 13 11 10 11 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 33 42 47 34 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 27. 27. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 1. -3. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 31. 34. 35. 29. 23. 16. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 105.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.48 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.60 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 18.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.80 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 16.7% 10.5% 4.5% 2.5% 19.8% 20.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 21.0% 9.9% 2.6% 0.9% 3.4% 21.5% Consensus: 1.4% 21.6% 12.8% 2.4% 1.1% 7.7% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##