* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 53 58 61 56 50 44 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 53 58 61 56 50 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 43 44 42 37 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 19 20 16 9 5 6 11 16 19 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -7 -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 74 86 85 97 102 92 148 165 184 196 221 242 238 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.5 26.1 24.4 23.1 21.9 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 157 157 157 155 150 140 125 107 93 79 69 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 81 79 77 78 74 67 57 51 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 12 13 13 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 19 23 31 26 27 18 16 23 11 -7 3 200 MB DIV 69 79 86 94 87 64 43 46 43 23 -3 0 16 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 1 0 1 -1 1 10 10 10 0 LAND (KM) 603 569 538 512 496 503 508 431 400 429 357 275 219 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 10 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 24 32 41 24 15 8 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 28. 33. 36. 31. 26. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 105.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.47 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.64 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 8.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.8% 4.1% 1.0% 0.4% 7.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 22.6% 11.6% 2.3% 0.6% 2.7% 11.8% Consensus: 0.9% 15.7% 9.8% 1.1% 0.3% 3.2% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##