* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 54 62 64 63 59 53 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 54 62 64 63 59 53 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 44 47 46 42 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 18 18 12 6 3 7 12 13 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 85 83 86 95 98 98 74 140 203 196 219 227 242 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.1 25.4 24.2 22.7 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 157 156 154 148 136 117 104 89 73 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 79 81 78 80 79 75 67 59 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 12 11 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 17 21 21 21 11 21 -11 -1 -18 -7 2 200 MB DIV 79 65 85 91 96 81 45 38 37 32 1 6 15 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 1 1 0 6 8 8 -3 LAND (KM) 676 641 606 564 523 504 528 457 411 361 391 282 246 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 5 7 8 10 13 14 13 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 20 23 30 40 22 11 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 29. 37. 39. 38. 34. 28. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 105.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.64 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 16.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.3% 3.4% 0.4% 0.2% 4.7% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 12.3% 4.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 7.3% Consensus: 0.6% 12.9% 7.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##