* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 39 46 53 60 63 60 55 50 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 39 46 53 60 63 60 55 50 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 36 40 41 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 12 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 11 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 -5 -2 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 88 77 72 78 78 100 71 85 81 100 143 184 217 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.9 26.6 24.2 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 151 150 150 150 151 151 145 131 106 84 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 76 76 75 73 78 79 76 66 55 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 29 30 35 34 13 6 5 4 8 -5 -8 200 MB DIV 71 71 71 76 95 92 67 52 53 18 13 7 6 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 0 -4 2 -4 0 2 6 8 LAND (KM) 735 750 772 786 822 859 869 814 739 548 441 362 199 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.7 13.2 14.4 16.4 18.9 21.5 24.1 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.2 106.8 107.4 108.0 109.1 110.0 110.6 111.5 113.1 114.7 115.8 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 9 12 16 15 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 22 29 33 36 17 14 16 23 18 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 26. 33. 40. 43. 40. 35. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 105.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 30.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.5% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 3.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##