* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 46 50 57 59 62 63 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 46 50 57 59 62 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 35 40 46 51 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 11 11 13 10 9 7 10 14 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 73 72 77 68 84 101 93 83 83 76 91 60 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 150 149 148 149 147 147 150 151 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 74 73 74 72 72 67 64 64 65 66 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 24 24 35 39 36 32 28 26 18 14 0 200 MB DIV 21 37 54 51 35 45 27 10 8 38 17 37 40 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 722 785 860 945 1013 1129 1230 1298 1312 1257 1190 1120 1092 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.0 10.8 11.0 11.7 12.6 13.6 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.5 107.7 108.8 109.8 111.4 112.5 113.2 113.6 113.6 113.6 114.1 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 7 5 3 3 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 26 36 28 17 14 15 18 19 22 25 32 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 26. 30. 37. 39. 42. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 105.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 39.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.37 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##