* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 42 48 53 57 60 62 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 42 48 53 57 60 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 36 41 48 56 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 18 15 13 12 12 11 5 4 7 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 64 68 72 79 70 64 88 92 78 70 69 79 96 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 153 152 151 151 150 149 149 150 152 153 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 68 70 72 72 72 72 68 65 63 65 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 25 30 34 32 29 40 50 43 39 34 28 14 9 200 MB DIV 4 6 24 34 48 37 40 8 -1 0 24 33 33 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -4 -7 -5 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 597 627 670 743 825 977 1115 1234 1303 1337 1276 1189 1121 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.6 12.4 13.4 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.5 105.6 106.8 107.9 110.0 111.7 113.0 113.8 114.5 114.9 115.2 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 9 8 5 4 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 16 25 33 15 15 19 21 23 25 32 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 103.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 8.9% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##