* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 41 47 53 55 60 62 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 41 47 53 55 60 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 33 38 43 50 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 21 19 17 13 15 12 7 3 6 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -5 -7 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 65 66 67 72 80 71 76 90 110 92 81 82 110 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 155 154 151 151 150 150 150 150 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 65 68 70 71 75 72 72 67 65 65 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 24 28 26 29 40 40 40 30 31 12 8 200 MB DIV 13 8 8 14 19 39 53 29 -11 -20 15 19 37 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 552 577 621 657 721 857 974 1092 1203 1265 1283 1223 1155 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.1 11.8 11.6 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.3 104.3 105.3 106.4 108.4 110.1 111.5 112.8 113.6 114.3 114.6 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 16 15 22 30 15 15 19 22 24 28 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. -1. 0. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 27. 33. 35. 40. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 102.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##