* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 39 46 52 55 59 61 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 39 46 52 55 59 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 32 36 41 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 22 20 18 14 14 12 11 3 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -4 -6 -4 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 74 67 67 68 66 69 65 84 103 122 45 109 64 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 157 155 153 152 151 151 151 150 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 69 69 73 73 73 70 67 66 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 21 25 26 24 30 40 35 35 30 23 13 200 MB DIV -4 2 9 6 13 27 51 53 17 -7 -10 15 32 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 516 537 577 621 657 767 893 1012 1134 1249 1324 1304 1299 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.9 12.4 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.4 103.3 104.3 105.3 107.4 109.2 110.7 112.2 113.6 114.8 115.5 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 27 21 16 15 30 18 15 17 23 23 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 39. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 101.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##