* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 09/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 36 43 48 53 54 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 36 43 48 53 54 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 33 37 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 19 22 20 16 12 13 11 5 3 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 -5 -5 -3 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 80 74 69 67 68 77 62 75 84 105 38 80 67 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 160 156 153 152 151 152 151 150 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 65 68 71 74 73 72 67 67 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 25 21 25 27 28 40 32 36 29 27 13 200 MB DIV -7 -4 2 10 9 19 33 59 21 -9 -22 -2 19 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 494 511 546 592 633 739 877 999 1136 1249 1344 1359 1333 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.4 12.1 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.8 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.8 102.6 103.6 104.7 106.9 108.9 110.5 112.0 113.3 114.4 115.4 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 34 25 20 16 26 21 15 16 21 22 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 28. 33. 34. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 101.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 09/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 10.8% 6.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.7% 4.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 09/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##