* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 08/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 38 45 49 53 50 44 40 39 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 38 45 49 53 50 39 37 37 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 37 36 34 28 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 9 12 11 6 7 5 8 8 5 8 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 1 1 0 -3 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 89 78 76 83 88 62 51 40 49 22 301 289 221 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.9 27.2 29.7 30.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 158 156 148 142 135 131 136 161 162 145 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 75 72 70 71 69 69 70 66 62 53 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 9 9 10 8 5 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 65 67 59 68 58 14 30 15 14 6 22 -6 -2 200 MB DIV 49 41 38 29 25 12 50 21 27 6 7 -17 12 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -5 -6 -5 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 92 61 50 91 182 192 56 60 56 -30 17 42 -15 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 10 9 7 5 4 6 10 8 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 19 19 15 11 4 8 0 8 16 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 15. 19. 23. 20. 14. 10. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 103.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 08/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.18 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 26.6% 18.3% 12.3% 0.0% 14.6% 14.5% Logistic: 5.2% 13.3% 10.4% 3.2% 1.4% 10.7% 14.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 24.0% 9.0% 1.5% 0.3% 2.0% 2.9% Consensus: 5.1% 21.3% 12.6% 5.7% 0.6% 9.1% 10.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 08/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##