* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 08/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 46 54 60 64 62 57 52 48 45 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 46 54 60 50 42 36 31 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 39 42 45 50 52 43 38 33 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 11 8 8 6 8 4 5 6 3 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 4 8 4 1 0 -1 -5 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 83 87 87 78 80 66 43 14 51 344 4 299 43 SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.3 27.6 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 160 158 155 151 147 143 137 136 139 134 131 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.2 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 10 7 8 5 6 4 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 72 72 70 68 69 69 64 53 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 11 9 12 13 13 11 9 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 61 76 65 54 63 26 29 16 16 18 6 3 -16 200 MB DIV 105 41 53 49 36 22 48 30 31 1 1 3 0 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 3 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 56 57 58 91 136 249 48 -22 -12 -30 -31 -50 -37 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 5 7 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 20 16 17 16 11 14 0 2 14 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 5. 6. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 16. 24. 30. 34. 32. 27. 22. 18. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 102.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 08/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.86 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.30 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 33.8% 22.2% 15.0% 0.0% 18.0% 17.5% Logistic: 25.9% 46.3% 43.4% 23.3% 14.6% 48.0% 55.4% Bayesian: 2.1% 55.9% 35.1% 11.3% 6.4% 36.7% 13.1% Consensus: 13.8% 45.3% 33.6% 16.5% 7.0% 34.2% 28.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 08/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##