* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 08/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 32 38 46 52 56 51 46 39 36 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 32 38 46 52 47 40 38 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 24 25 28 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 13 12 13 9 9 7 6 6 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 1 4 3 2 -1 0 -4 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 85 81 88 83 67 75 51 46 353 20 12 26 28 SST (C) 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.6 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 163 161 159 154 150 147 144 139 128 123 125 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 75 75 72 70 70 73 69 63 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 10 11 11 13 13 14 11 9 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 55 63 70 63 56 57 24 35 14 24 9 19 -5 200 MB DIV 100 108 50 48 50 17 5 57 44 40 -33 -5 -7 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -6 -5 -6 0 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 58 55 48 66 79 167 210 72 -20 -20 30 45 39 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 11 9 7 6 6 7 6 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 24 23 21 16 16 16 15 15 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 22. 29. 32. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 7. 7. 9. 4. 1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 26. 32. 36. 31. 26. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.0 101.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 08/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 08/06/16 18 UTC ## ##