* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 08/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 53 55 55 54 53 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 44 51 53 46 47 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 27 29 27 30 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 20 16 13 14 9 6 7 7 7 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 73 89 92 88 71 63 23 7 329 300 335 25 26 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.3 28.3 26.8 26.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 164 162 161 160 160 162 158 147 130 121 115 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -50.8 -51.4 -50.4 -51.2 -50.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 11 9 8 10 8 11 6 8 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 78 77 79 78 76 74 70 65 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 55 59 66 54 60 50 37 17 19 13 11 -7 200 MB DIV 90 89 82 49 41 61 26 36 25 46 20 5 -6 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -7 -5 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 40 70 77 74 73 29 3 115 143 -31 39 48 96 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.9 20.2 21.5 22.5 23.6 24.1 24.4 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 101.7 102.6 103.3 103.8 104.7 105.6 106.7 108.3 110.1 111.6 112.5 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 8 6 6 8 8 9 10 8 6 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 25 25 24 17 39 29 22 16 5 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 33. 35. 35. 34. 33. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.6 100.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 08/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.2 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 35.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.08 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 5.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2.0% 2.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 08/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##